Growth Beyond Familiar Markets

The expansion case is missing a decision

A country can look compelling on a strategy slide while remaining a poor fit for the business proposing to enter it. Population, investment and economic growth establish that activity exists. They do not establish who will buy, what they will pay for, or whether the company can serve them profitably.

That gap matters when leadership teams discuss India, the Gulf and Southeast Asia together. A shared label such as “growth markets” can conceal radically different commercial problems. The useful starting point is a specific transaction: a particular customer, buying a particular outcome, through a route the business can actually operate.

The central choice is how much of the existing model deserves to travel. A company may retain its technology and quality standards while changing distribution, service, pricing and decision rights. Another may discover that its established proposition solves the wrong problem. Localisation becomes strategic when it changes the economics of the offer, rather than simply its presentation.

India: define the reachable customer

India's October 2026 economic outlook provides a strong reason to pay attention. The World Bank projects 7.1% growth for FY27, supported by domestic demand and exports, while highlighting external risks. That is a forecast for an economy, not a growth target for every business entering it.

A serious entry plan needs a smaller unit of analysis. Which customers have the need, purchasing power and access required to become repeat buyers? An urban premium segment, a regional distributor network and a large enterprise procurement team require different offers and routes to market. A national population figure cannot choose between them.

Consider what affordability means in the proposed transaction. The constraint may be the purchase price, the initial cash outlay, maintenance, downtime or the difficulty of obtaining support. Reducing the headline price without understanding the constraint can remove margin while leaving the obstacle intact. For a business customer, a locally supported product with dependable servicing may offer more value than a cheaper imported alternative.

Distribution should be part of that reasoning from the beginning. IKEA's Tamil Nadu delivery announcement describes an offer combining online shopping, remote planning, delivery and assembly. The relevant lesson is the bundle of capabilities around the product. Access and support form part of what the customer is buying. The announcement does not establish that this model is profitable; it shows a concrete way of assembling market access.

The same distinction appears in our analysis of India's convention cities. New capacity creates an opening. The programme, experience and reasons to make the journey determine whether an audience will use it. For an expanding business, the equivalent question is what turns theoretical demand into a transaction worth repeating.

The Gulf: separate strategic relevance from executable demand

In the Gulf, a long-term investment narrative needs a separate assessment of near-term delivery. The current regional conflict has disrupted energy production and shipping, with sharply uneven economic consequences. A growth presentation that treats pre-conflict expectations as an unchanged commercial baseline is no longer adequate.

For a prospective entrant, this creates two questions. Does the offering address a durable need? Can a specific customer commission, receive and pay for it under current conditions? Both matter. An attractive national priority does not establish that a particular project has a confirmed budget, an accessible procurement route or a workable delivery schedule.

Treat each country and customer category separately. Consumer demand, private-sector purchasing and public investment programmes are different sources of revenue. A relationship that opens a conversation in one setting may not provide the credentials, capacity or service coverage needed in another. “We have a regional partner” is the beginning of due diligence, rather than its conclusion.

The operating discussion should identify who controls the budget, who accepts delivery and which dependencies could interrupt performance. If specialist staff cannot travel, can the work continue locally? If logistics take longer, who carries the additional cost? If a project is deferred, which commitments can be paused and which continue consuming cash?

This is also a question of timing. A company can preserve relationships, support existing customers and develop local capability while deferring a large fixed commitment. The decision to wait can be disciplined if it names the evidence required to proceed. Equally, uncertainty should not become a blanket dismissal of distinct markets and customers whose needs remain real.

Southeast Asia: decide what scale actually shares

A regional headquarters can coordinate a business without making its markets interchangeable. Leadership needs to decide which capabilities can be shared and which require local ownership: product architecture, brand, data analysis, pricing, distribution, service or partnerships. The answer should follow the transaction and its economics.

Grab offers a useful operating example. In its second-quarter 2026 results, the company reported 21% year-on-year growth in on-demand gross merchandise value. It also reported that on-demand incentives reached 10.9% of that value, up 72 basis points, including support for driver earnings amid higher fuel costs and investment in affordable product tiers.

Those figures belong together. Activity increased alongside spending to support supply and demand. They do not prove that incentives alone caused growth, or that another company could reproduce the outcome. They do show why an expansion plan must examine customer affordability, partner economics and the cost of sustained participation together.

For a new entrant, a successful launch in one city should therefore produce a hypothesis for the next market, followed by another test. Which part of the result depended on local density, a particular partner, a subsidy or a service promise? What can be reused without recreating the whole operation? Regional scale becomes valuable when those questions have credible answers.

The wider environment matters too. The Asian Development Bank's September 2026 outlook identifies energy disruption, trade costs and weather-related risks across developing Asia and the Pacific. Its regional aggregate should not be mistaken for a Southeast Asian demand forecast. Our earlier analysis of Asian integration examines the connections between markets; the commercial task here is to decide which connections a particular business can use.

Four tests before the next commitment

The following is a proposed Scurati decision framework for a regional growth review. It structures judgement; it is not a validated market-ranking model. Apply it to one customer segment and one route to market at a time.

1. Customer: identify the buying decision

Describe the problem, the buyer, the budget and the alternative already in use. Separate the person who benefits from the person who approves spending. Interview customers who declined as well as those who showed interest. The output should be a proposition that can be tested at a stated price, with a clear reason to choose it.

2. Access: trace the complete transaction

Follow the journey from first contact to payment, delivery, support and renewal. Identify the dependencies at each step and who owns them. Where a partner is essential, establish what it contributes beyond introductions: customer reach, operating capacity, service, local knowledge or financing. An incomplete route to market cannot be repaired by a larger sales forecast.

3. Economics: expose the cost of adaptation

Build the case around delivered value and contribution, including partner margins, local support, working capital and the cost of acquiring repeat customers. Distinguish temporary launch investment from costs that recur with every sale. Stress-test the assumptions most exposed to the market, such as delivery delays, fuel costs or slower payment. Set the acceptable range before enthusiasm hardens into commitment.

4. Authority: give local learning somewhere to go

Specify which decisions the local team can make and which require central approval. Price experiments, service adjustments and partner changes should have named owners and limits. Protect common standards where failure would damage customers or the wider business. Agree how evidence from the market can challenge the original plan, including the decision to slow down or stop.

Finish the review with a commitment of defined size, an accountable owner and an evidence threshold for the next step. “Expand in Asia” is an ambition. “Test whether this segment renews through this channel at sustainable economics” is a decision the organisation can learn from.

Local knowledge needs organisational authority

An international business can recruit experienced local leaders and still prevent them from changing the decisions that matter. If every adjustment waits for headquarters, the local team may become an interpreter of a centrally fixed plan.

The remedy requires explicit boundaries. A regional leader might have authority to test a service package within an agreed investment limit, while product safety and financial controls remain common. The central team should know what evidence it will receive and when. The local team should know what it is permitted to change in response.

Learning should also travel in both directions. An adaptation developed for a demanding cost environment may improve the offer elsewhere. A simpler service process, a different channel or a lower-resource product can become a source of wider advantage. That possibility disappears when headquarters treats every local change as an exception to be contained.

The next growth review should therefore ask two things: what must this business learn about the market, and what is it willing to change about itself? A credible international strategy connects the answers.

Four perspectives for a regional growth discussion

These are complementary editorial perspectives, not endorsements of this framework by the featured experts.

The customer and the commercial model

Nirmalya Kumar ↗

The Lee Kong Chian Professor of Marketing at Singapore Management University connects customer value with corporate strategy, drawing also on his former group-strategy responsibilities at Tata Sons. His lens challenges the assumption that an established brand or product advantage will transfer unchanged. Which customer problem gives the business a defensible reason to enter?

The regional connections behind the opportunity

Afshin Molavi ↗

The Johns Hopkins SAIS Foreign Policy Institute senior fellow brings a journalist's background and a focus on trade, hub cities and the Middle East's global relationships. His perspective helps distinguish a promising connection from a fragile dependency. Which routes, customers and partners make the opportunity workable under changing conditions?

Building across Southeast Asian markets

Tan Hooi Ling ↗

Grab's co-founder and former COO brings experience of building operations and technology teams in a regional platform business. She no longer holds a position at Grab. Her operator perspective makes experimentation and execution central to the discussion: what must a team learn locally before the organisation commits to scale?

The +1 · Let the market improve the model

Navi Radjou ↗

The independent innovation adviser and co-author of Frugal Innovation changes the direction of the question. Resource-constrained markets can generate ideas worth taking elsewhere. His wildcard lens challenges leaders to ask which assumptions about cost, complexity and customer value should be redesigned across the business.

Books Shaping the Conversation

These two foundational works address different decisions behind regional expansion. They are conceptual companions to the current evidence, rather than guides to today's market conditions.

Winning in Emerging Markets: A Road Map for Strategy and Execution

Explore Books to Book

Tarun Khanna and Krishna G. Palepu · Harvard Business Press · 2010

Explains why the institutions and intermediaries supporting a transaction matter to market entry. Use its framework to test how a market actually functions today, rather than assuming that the gaps described in older cases still exist.

Publisher and book details

Frugal Innovation: How to Do Better with Less

Explore Books to Book

Navi Radjou and Jaideep Prabhu · Economist Books / Profile Books · 2015; paperback 2016

Examines how organisations can develop useful offerings with fewer resources. It deepens the question of adaptation: which costs and complexities are genuinely necessary to deliver the customer outcome?

Publisher and book details

From Insight to Stage

Frame the next regional leadership session around a live entry or expansion decision. Bring a country leader, a commercial owner and someone responsible for delivery into the conversation. Ask them to identify the customer, the route to market, the economics and the authority required to adapt. The useful outcome is a funded next test with a decision date.